Can Scotland finally break the New Zealand curse?

The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - the landscapes have changed but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have reduced to closer margins in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Thursday brought news that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

In an era when most props are replaced long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he can match New Zealand's standard.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in the first half and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have required a points average in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? The game is lost.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Fantasy rugby, maybe. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.